“We will do all that is necessary to modernize the security and intelligence services and that's a commitment which is essential to deal with problems of development." - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
On July 6, the Indian government announced its annual budget of approximately $ 210 billion in which $ 29.39 are kept for defense spending. Last year, the annual defense spending of India was $ 21.6 billion. As Asia's third largest economy and world's sixth biggest spender on military expenditures, India announced 34% increase in its defense budget for the year 2009-2010. Such a massive surge in defense spending is unprecedented. The last huge increase in defense spending was in 1987-88 when the defense budget was enhanced by 43.4%. Last year, there was a raise of 10% in India's defense spending. At that time too, tension with Pakistan was at its peak because of India's massive military exercises called "Brasstacks" and insurgency in the Indian Punjab. This time, the pretext given by New Delhi concerning its surge in military expenditures is what it calls the worsening of security situation following the terrorist attack in Mumbai last November.
According to the Indian Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, India embarked on a massive increase in its defense budget because, "the Mumbai terror attacks have given an entirely new dimension to cross-border terrorism. A threshold has been crossed. Our security environment has deteriorated considerably."
Justifying massive escalation of Indian's defense budget, Defence Minister A. K. Anthony said that, "our current defense spending is lower than 2% of GDP and it should be at least 3%." Pakistan and China are spending 3.5% and 4.3% of their GDP on defence, respectively. It is also argued in India that "the modernization of armed forces has become a global trend. We must also assume a new approach taking into account a variety of threats to our national security."
Whatever rationale or justification is provided to endorse the enormous rise in India's defence expenditures, the fact is that such a trend will have far-reaching implications at the regional and international level. How the arms race, which is already consuming limited and meagre resources, has taken a toll of poverty-stricken India and Pakistan is not unknown. The Human Development Index gives ample information about the two countries - about the low quality of life of people and the deepening of poverty.
According to the details of the Indian defence budget, New Delhi will spend $ 562 million exclusively for enhancing border security and modernizing its police. The Indian Finance Minister while briefing the media stated that "significant augmentation in the strength of paramilitary forces is being done. This calls for more investment in creating the necessary infrastructure. "An Indian strategic analyst while commenting on the rise in the Indian defence budget said that, "this specific allocation for border management and modernizing the police force appears to be a direct fallout of the Mumbai attacks." India's ambitious plans for modernizing its armed forces, border security force and infrastructure to deal with internal and external security threats will, however, consume billions of dollars. India also plans to expedite construction of fences and floodlights along its borders and build roads and other communication networks in order to improve its security surveillance.
India plans to integrate its three armed forces and enhance security along its coasts so as to pre-empt what it calls, "cross border infiltration" and prevent terrorists from sneaking into India as was manifested during the November terror attacks over Mumbai. It is yet to be seen to what extent the construction of walls and erection of barbed fire/floodlights along its borders, particularly those with Pakistan will help New Delhi curb the menace of terrorism.
If the causes of violence and terrorism are internal and rooted in India's domestic fault lines, taking cosmetic measures and enhancing its defence budget will not help but, to the contrary, will put additional burden on its taxpayers. At a time when the meeting of the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the 15th NAM summit, held in Sharm-al-Sheikh on July 16, has resulted into some thawing of Indo-Pak relations, there is a need to move forward and lower the tension.
How the additional 34% increase in India's defence spending will be used during the fiscal year 2009-2010 requires a brief summary of the items which will get preference. According to past practices, the Indian Army will get 41% of the defence budget which is $ 11.72 billion, followed by the Indian Air Force which will be allocated $ 2.86 billion and the Indian Navy will get $ 1.66 billion. The Indian defence budget has allocated $ 4.4 billion for pensions, $ 970 million for the Defence Research and Development Organization and $ 170 million for defence ordinance factories. A sum of $ 100 million has also been allocated for the rehabilitation of displaced persons in the Tamil-Sinhala conflict of Sri Lanka.
According to the information on India Defence Online, the Indian Army will procure over 1000 pieces of 155mm/52 calibre guns (for which bids have been floated), a variety of unmanned vehicles, additional T-90 tanks, upgrades for its T-72 tanks, mobile command posts for artillery regiments, advanced equipment for specialized forces, advanced anti-tank guided missiles, helicopters and Battlefield Management Systems.
The Indian Air Force plans to procure UAVs, 126 Multirole Medium Range Aircraft (for which a global bid has been floated), additional aerial refuellers, helicopters to replace aging Cheetah and Chetaks, upgrade of MiG 29 and Mirage 2000-H aircraft, purchase of air defence systems, advanced missiles, and Beyond Visual Range missiles and a dedicated satellite. India is also planning to buy $ 10.2 billion worth of 126 fighter jets hopefully from the United States.
The Indian Navy will seek additional submarines including nuclear submarines and the Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft in addition to the Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft contracted from Boeing in January 2009 for $ 1 billion.
The Navy would also require an unspecified number of UAV's, air defence missiles, heavy weight torpedoes for submarines, network-centric systems and additional warships. India aims to modernize its largely Soviet-era arms arsenal at a cost of $ 30 billion.
Given the size of India, both in terms of population and territory, and its history of seeking regional influence by using more hard than soft power, the Indian defense budget is simply an attempt to compete with major spenders on defense. The United States has been spending around $ 600 billion on defense, followed by Russia, which is spending $ 79 billion and the Peoples Republic of China which is spending $ 71 billion.
In real terms, Indian's defense expenditures will cross $ 30 billion next year. America is the world's biggest economy with $ 14 trillion GDP. It is also the biggest debtor with $ 2 trillion of debts but its economic clout is enormous. Russia and China are stable in terms of their balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. The level of poverty in these two countries is also limited as compared to India. All the three major defense spenders are the permanent members of the UN Security Council and have massive conventional and nuclear forces. On the other hand, India, which is trying to emerge as a global power has major fault lines ranging from its more than one-third people living below poverty line, dozens of militant and violent movements followed by endless confrontation with Pakistan over unresolved outstanding disputes, namely Jammu and Kashmir.
If one tries to examine the implications of the Indian defense budget, 2009-2010 three important but hard realities are found. First, India's neighbor, Pakistan will find it extremely difficult not to respond, if not match the growing defense spending by New Delhi. It is true that, there is no comparison between India and Pakistan in terms of demography, territory, resources, economy and foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan's age-old strategic mindset would require further expansion and modernization of its conventional and nuclear forces. Islamabad, however, has repeatedly stated that it would not involve itself in an arms race with India but will surely be mindful of its security concerns by complying with minimum nuclear deterrence.
Secondly, regardless of India's economic growth, allocation of an enormous $ 29.39 billion in the defense sector will definitely put pressure over its taxpayers who are also burdened, like their neighbours, with price-hike, power breakdowns, unemployment, inflation and so forth. Can India, which has the world's 15% poor afford to divert massive resources from development to defence? If 40 % of the amount which is used by India to buy weapons of mass destruction is used for socio-economic uplift of its impoverished population, one can expect a qualitative change in the life-style of its people.
The same is true for Pakistan where the 2009-2010 allocation of $ 4.5 billion for the defence sector is around 35% of its total budget. One-third of that amount, if used for productive purposes, can alleviate the plight of millions of people in terms of providing them safe drinking water, proper health care, better education and housing. But, the so-called custodians of India and Pakistan are oblivious to the fact that their priority should be providing basic security and good quality of life to their people instead of spending their limited resources on the purchase of weapons and other means of mass destruction.
It is high time, India and Pakistan give priority to human development and improved the quality of life of their people instead of remaining victims of a parochial mindset which breeds insecurity, hate and hostility. There is no harm in augmenting the country's security, but it should not be at the expense of the well-being of people. Certainly, neither India nor Pakistan can feel secure by augmenting their defense expenditures and such a practice will be a drain on their meagre resource.
The writer is Professor and Chairman, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.
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