International observers and media have a close eye on the pre-election state of Afghanistan while the country's political landscape is filled with much chaos and doubts. There are reports about alleged corruption which prevails undercover and affects the preparations for the elections; the official number of voters; the weak autonomous power of the center to hold a free and fair electoral in all its provinces. In fact, it is not possible to carry out a fair election process at all in several provinces across the country which are not under control. The participation of women, if at all, is questionable. There are deals between the warlords, drug traffickers and dominant parties to rig the elections.
The forthcoming elections are being described as little more than political theater. The result is said to have been already decided by previous US policy, by deals between a number of Afghan powerbrokers and an electoral system that facilitates vote rigging and voter intimidation.
And as if that were not enough, the security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating as elections approach. The month of July has been described as the deadliest of all months for international forces fighting in Afghanistan in the eight-year history of the conflict when more than 55 NATO soldiers were killed.
While national governments debate their Afghan missions, international groups are working on the ground to ensure a free and fair election. The UN has called on the Afghan government institutions and officials to avoid interference during all phases of the election process to ensure credibility and fairness of the election process. It has also appealed to all voters to take part in the election as participation is essential to the legitimacy of the election results.
"The stakes are extremely high, the challenges are significant,” said Aleem Siddique, the United Nation's spokesperson in Kabul. “Afghanistan deserves the best leaders it can possibly have. The Afghan people are looking to the international community to provide that oversight to ensure their rights are protected."
The UN Development Programme is giving the election commission logistic support and is also helping train Afghan police who will guard polling stations across the country on August 20. The global body is behind a team of 1,600 civic educators, Afghans who are fanning out across the country to introduce the population to the democratic process - an idea very foreign to many.
The European Commission is deploying an EU Election Observation Mission (EOM) for the Presidential and Provincial Council elections to coordinate the assessment of the entire election process. Altogether 100 EU observers will be in place; 16 are on the ground now; the rest will go just before the election day. Altogether, the EU is spending 40 million euros on Afghan election support - money that goes to train EU and Afghan election monitors and helps with things like printing ballot sheets. The EU has the largest international observer group in Afghanistan for these elections.
Similarly the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has sent some 20 experts to provide technical assistance with voter registration, vote counting and tabulation and domestic observation teams.
In spite of the presence of such huge international assistance, both physical and monetary, there remain many hidden aspects that have put transparency of the elections in doubt. The first is the credibility of the vote during the elections. According to a BBC report, votes have already been sold to dominant groups in the country. President Hamid Karzai is said to have struck alliances with various warlords who can guarantee he wins the vote in the regions under their control. Similarly, a large number of people are likely to hold multiple cards which will provide the opportunity for wholesale fraud. A report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) pointed to the scale on which it may take place. Over 17 million voting cards have been issued in a country where half the population of 30 million is under the voting age.
Another factor which puts the credibility of the voting process at stake is the participation of Afghan women in the upcoming elections. Comprising almost half the total population, Afghan women are held back by strict social/ religious restrictions. Debarring half the country's population will be a hurdle in the government's tall claims of free and transparent elections where “every Afghan irrespective of gender or social status will come out to vote.”
The situation is likely to get more gruesome given the fact that tens of thousands of women are believed to have been registered to vote via their husbands or male relatives. The men will use the women's cards to cast additional votes, with the knowledge and acquiescence of local ballot officials. And this is not something new. According to the ICG, the female turnout in Paktika province in the 2005 elections was so “unbelievably high” that the figures were never released officially.
Some provinces are not under government control. They are either 'owned' by warlords, opium traders or Taliban. Apart from having complete control on the affairs of their provinces, these 'lords' - often involved in open scandals - are more likely to influence their publics' opinion. This will affect the voter count and the right voter decision which might be subject to partiality by force.
Hamid Karzai has called on thee Taliban to vote in the elections and denounce violence. This, say analysts, is a good public relationing tactic to make enemies friends, even if for a short period of time until the desired objective is not achieved! The move also promises, if not ensures, a violence-free and transparent election given the fact that Taliban have a strong hold in the south of the country and more so through their target killings and bomb blast activities. However, how seriously the Taliban take the extended hand and follow accordingly remains a question.
Corruption prevails in the political hierarchy of the country which further stains the credibility of the elections. Forty-one candidates are running for president and a recent poll showed Karzai with a big lead over his opponents. The dilemma facing the US/NATO occupation in the lead-up to the Afghan elections, is that no one among the list of potential presidents has any more credibility than Karzai. They are either warlords, guilty of human rights abuses or individuals who are viewed as even more open agents of the US government.
However, even Karzai is not exempt when it comes to a 'clean, corruption free' leader. Karzai's brother is alleged to be involved in opium and heroin trade in several areas of the Kandahar province and his very relationship with the Afghan president puts the latter's stature in doubt. The need to hold elections in the country is further questioned by some American officials who suspect that they may be stuck with Karzai for the next five years and that the Obama administration appears to be preparing for that.
Moreover, ministers, governors and military commanders in Afghanistan sell contracts and positions to the highest bidder. Police and public servants openly demand pay-offs and bribes. In presence of such a dishonest lot, chances are high of rigging, destroying all hopes for a transparent election in Afghanistan.
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