In fact, the issues of cross-border water distribution, utilisation, management and mega irrigation/hydro-electric power projects affecting the upper and lower riparian countries are gradually taking centre-stage in defining interstate relations as water scarcity increases and both drought and floods make life miserable.
This is happening in the background of the 21st century being billed as the century of economic and social development after the tumultuous 20th century came to be dominated by the two world wars in its first half and the Cold War in the second.
After the Cold War, there was speculation that the new millennium would start on a note of international cooperation. But Indo-Pakistan relations deteriorated following the Intefada among the Kashmiris and extremist Hindus rose to power in India and tested nuclear weapons in the middle of 1998.
Ever since, Indian leadership has adopted an arrogant attitude towards Pakistan, which in turn set the stage for a dialogue to resolve the disputes between the two countries.
The Baglihar Dam issue has further underlined the growing importance of energy and water issues between India and Pakistan. The river Chenab was allotted to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 and India is entitled to use its waters only to generate hydro-electricity. On the other hand, the design and construction of the projected dam at Baglihar is such that it would deny water for irrigation to Pakistan in the winter.
With the increasing world population, there are growing demands on natural resources, particularly water and sources of energy. The limits of economic growth have been recognised along with the need to develop and sustain the essential ingredients for a rising standard of living all over the world. The industrial revolution gave its beneficiaries not only the capacity to increase their production but also the means to increase their military power so that they can acquire colonies as markets for their goods and as sources for raw materials during the 18th and 19th centuries.
The colonising powers, located mostly in Europe, managed to reach agreement on their share in Asia, Africa and Latin America, However, late-comers like Germany manifested their dissatisfaction by waging wars. The two world wars in the first half of the 20th century compelled the establishment of the UN to end the “scourge of war”, and to foster economic and social development in all parts of the world.
Though the Cold War limited any significant political gains by the rival super powers in the second half of the 20th century, most of the colonies won their independence and the UN agencies dealing with economic and social issues recorded significant gains. However, despite having lost their empires the developed countries kept increasing their wealth and share of the world’s resources through their control of capital and technology, while most developing countries fell further behind.
It may be recalled that following independence in 1947, the issue of sharing the waters of the Indo-Gangetic water system arose and was resolved only through the good offices of the World Bank that promoted lengthy negotiations culminating in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. This treaty was not viewed favourably by exponents of international law as it violated the principle of safeguarding the rights of lower riparians. India was able to press its case by taking the water resources of the Indus river system as a whole, and as there were canals from two eastern rivers, Ravi and Sutlej irrigating substantial areas in Pakistani Punjab, Pakistan had to construct major dams on the Indus (Tarbela) and Jhelum (Mangla) to transfer water to the Ravi and Sutlej.
While the Indus Waters Treaty has worked reasonably well India has been interfering with the waters of the three western rivers, on the plea that the people of occupied Kashmir have needs also. The fact that Kashmir is a disputed territory has not inhibited it from coming up with water and energy projects that have given rise to new items in the agenda of bilateral differences, such as Wullar Barrage, Baglihar dam, and most recently the Kishenganga project. In the emerging scenario, India has the ability to pressure Pakistan on water issues, but its long-term energy requirements require transit facilities through Pakistan for oil and gas pipelines from Iran and Central Asia.
As the concept of security now covers assured access to both water and energy resources, this demands a virtual transformation of Indo-Pakistan relations from one of confrontation to that of cooperation. Indeed, the increasingly powerful industrial elite in India is in favour of the integrated management of the water and energy resources of South Asia, and the adoption of a conciliatory and cooperative attitude, rather than an assertive one towards its neighbours.
Both countries are stepping up their efforts to develop water resources, both for generating hydro-electric energy and for human consumption and irrigation. Pakistan’s total hydel energy potential is 30,000MW of which only about 6,000MW have been developed. There is need for harmonious management of available resources of water and energy, and for Pakistan, it is imperative that the interest of Afghanistan is kept in view as its main river, the Kabul, is a tributary of the Indus. India would have to keep in view the interests of Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
In the current phase, the US is backing India in developing nuclear power, while Pakistan would have to rely on China. There is a role for the great powers, including Japan and Russia, in transferring technology.
Together with other challenges of the environment, including global warming, degradation caused by poverty, and desertification, the management of water and energy resources in overcrowded parts of the planet must assume a high priority if our economic and social goals are to be achieved.
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